The choice will belong to the voters. However, it must be made with full awareness, and those who will draft the future Constitution must measure the stakes involved.
The President of the Refoundation has announced that the form of the State will be decided by referendum during the adoption of the Constitution of the Fifth Republic. The debate promises to be lively. It would be a pity if it were reduced to mere labels. Each option carries both a promise and a risk, which the Malagasy and African experience already allows us to document.
A highly decentralized unitary state offers continuity. The legal framework already exists: the 2010 Constitution, the 2014 organic law, and the PNDE. Trust also exists at the local level: according to Afrobarometer, in 2013, 61% of respondents trusted their municipal councilors, compared to less than 30% for the judiciary. A weak point remains: this option depends on the central power. The World Bank speaks of a ‘string of unfinished races,’ and the PNDE itself acknowledges a reluctance to ‘let go of anything at the central level.’
A federal state responds more directly to the feeling of exclusion that regions have long expressed, which Rajaona analyzed as early as 1997 as a question of legitimacy and representation. Its guarantees can be enshrined in the Constitution. But African experience invites caution. Ethiopia, whose federalism follows ethnic lines, has been experiencing a civil war in Tigray since 2020. Nigeria went from 3 federated states in 1960 to 36 in 1999, with each group claiming its own entity. Furthermore, an entity endowed with resources can be captured by local networks, a phenomenon the World Bank has already documented at the local level.
One lesson applies to both options: writing a principle is not enough. The 2010 Constitution already guarantees the autonomy of local authorities, yet less than 2% of the budget is managed at a decentralized level (World Bank, 2024). In 1998, autonomous provinces had powers that could be modified by a simple law and lacked guaranteed revenues. They were abolished in 2007. In 2002, five governors placed their offices at the service of Didier Ratsiraka in his conflict with Marc Ravalomanana. Any territorial structure can be drawn into a national power struggle.
The same questions arise for each option. They are addressed to all those who will vote, who will govern, or who will write the Constitution: What guarantees? Where are they inscribed: in the Constitution, a law, or a decree? For whom? For every commune and region, and for inhabitants originating from elsewhere? Under what control? Who verifies the use of transferred resources and powers, and with what independence? Modifiable by whom? Who can change the rule later, and by what majority? These questions do not have a single answer, but they are worth asking before the vote, not after.
Captured & Published at: 2026-10-23 06:24:03 (Madagascar Local Time EAT)
Original Source: https://www.lexpress.mg/2026/10/unitaire-ou-federal-les-bonnes.html