October ended with the start of the rainy season in line with forecasts, according to a technician from the General Directorate of Meteorology. However, the final months of the year are expected to be drier than usual.
Weather forecasts for the period from November to January indicate normal to below-normal rainfall across much of Madagascar, with the exception of the North. “In November and December, it will rain, but in quantities deemed insufficient, with more frequent interruptions than usual,” said Zo Rakotomavo, Director of Hydrometeorological Research and Development at the General Directorate of Meteorology, yesterday. He attributes this phenomenon to El Niño, the effects of which were already felt in October. “High heat during dry periods has alternated with violent downpours,” he added.
This rainfall deficit is expected to affect a large part of the country, particularly Analamanga, Alaotra-Mangoro—one of Madagascar’s rice granaries—as well as the south of the island.
According to updated seasonal forecasts, cumulative rainfall is expected to be between 50 and 100 mm in the East and Analamanga in November, potentially reaching 100 to 150 mm locally. In December, it could reach 150 to 200 mm in the south and east of Analamanga, and up to 250 mm in the west and north of the region. Improvement is expected in January, with minimum cumulative rainfall forecast at 200 to 250 mm in the south of Analamanga and 250 to 300 mm in the north. Maximums are forecast at 250 to 300 mm in the south, 300 to 350 mm in the center, and 350 to 400 mm at the northern end of the region.
In major rice-growing basins, uncertainty prevails. The Alaotra-Mangoro meteorological service indicates that the threshold marking the effective start of the rainy season has not yet been reached. Technicians recommend that rice farmers wait before sowing in fields that depend solely on rainfall to prevent young plants from aging too much before transplanting.
Producers are worried. Alfred Rakotonirina, president of the Rice Farmers’ Federation in Tanambe, explains: “We are very anxious because rice sowing should begin this November. But hearing about a possible lack of rain, we are hesitant to sow. We bought seeds intended for a normal season, whereas we should be using short-cycle varieties instead.”
Between the risk of financial loss and the delicate choice of varieties, farmers are facing the next two months in a state of climatic uncertainty.
Captured & Published at: 2026-11-03 05:39:05 (Madagascar Local Time EAT)
Original Source: https://www.lexpress.mg/2026/11/previsions-meteorologiques-des-pluies.html