What if the worst is yet to come? Oil prices continue to rise on the international market. As one might guess, this is due, on one hand, to the war between Russia and Ukraine, and on the other, to the conflict between the United States and Iran. Two confrontations that are disrupting oil production and the market.
Russia is the world’s third-largest oil producer, just behind the United States and Saudi Arabia, accounting for 10% of production with 9 to 10 million barrels per day. This capacity has been undermined by targeted Ukrainian strikes that destroyed several Russian production and storage units via drone attacks. The result is a shortage that drives up pump prices and necessitates fuel rationing—a surreal scene. It is clear that this situation is reverberating around the world. In Europe, pump prices are climbing to record levels, exceeding the 2.50 euro mark—something never seen before, even during the 1973 oil crisis.
The war between Iran and the United States complicates the problem. In response to U.S. bombings, Iran has retaliated by closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which a large portion of cargo ships and tankers pass. The number of ships using this channel has dropped from 140 to 4 since the closure. Ships must seek alternative routes, increasing transport costs and delivery times. Consequently, oil prices are galloping worldwide.
Yemen has joined the fray by also locking down the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This is an ultra-strategic maritime strait connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, separating the Arabian Peninsula (Yemen) from the Horn of Africa (Djibouti and Eritrea). It is a global economic key through which a vast portion of maritime trade and oil transits. Yemen controls the passage in this strait by taking possession of the surrounding localities.
However, 12% of international trade and 30% of large container ships use this route between Asia and Europe. Ships must now bypass the entire African continent via the Cape of Good Hope. The closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait deprives markets of a major share of global hydrocarbon flows, as more than five million barrels per day pass through it. An oil shock seems inevitable.
Madagascar will not be spared, directly or indirectly. Of course, there are other suppliers not affected by this closure. The State, through the SPM (Malagasy Petroleum Company), has anticipated this by turning to Nigeria for supplies. This is an illustration of the South-South cooperation that can be achieved in other areas. This is, at the very least, the goal of the AfCFTA, the African common market.
There are many oil-producing countries to which we can turn, such as Angola, Gabon, and Algeria. But the fear of a shortage is real, even if it does not stem directly from the various wars. It is more a matter of storage capacity. With the demographic boom and increased consumption, the construction of a new storage site is an absolute necessity. A project for a new station was started in 2018 in Ambohijanaka. Unfortunately, work stopped at the earthworks stage and was abandoned with the change of regime. Yes, the reform of hydrocarbon management is part of the ‘Fanavaozana’ (Renewal). Wait and see.
Captured & Published at: 2026-09-17 05:38:56 (Madagascar Local Time EAT)
Original Source: https://www.lexpress.mg/2026/09/cooperation-sud-sud.html